India loved Narendra Modi’s first term as prime minister, going by the 2019 election results. How is the country warming up to the initial months of its second-term PM?To gauge this, ET Magazine relied on conversation research agency MavenMagnet. Based in New York and Mumbai, the company uses patented proprietary technology to glean the mood by analysing thousands of conversations online — on social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and Twitter, on forums and blog posts as well as comments on news articles.The results have one limitation — it does not capture sentiment that has not been expressed online. If it has been expressed online in English, Hindi, Marathi, Bengali, Kannada, Tamil, Telugu or Malayalam, the study captures it.
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The results are unequivocal. Modi’s approval rating, so to speak, is high currently: 64 per cent of the conversations analysed expressed positive sentiments about the government, with 36 per cent expressing negative sentiments. The gains are principally from political decisions such as the abrogation of Special Status for Kashmir in Article 370 and the National Register of Citizens in Assam, while the negatives have predominantly focused on the government’s management of the economy.
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MavenMagnet analysed more than 10,000 conversations on the government among 8,400 individuals from various sources for 89 days starting May 30, when the government took oath, and ending on August 26. The government completes 100 days on September 6.
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The MavenMagnet Brand Aura, which measures impactful words around discussions on the government, shows the name “Modi” having the biggest impact with a mix of positives and negatives. The words with the biggest positive impact are “One India”, “Kashmir”, “Article 370” and “Amit Shah”, while the big negatives are “economy”, “tax”, “middle class” and “demonetisation”.
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Among all the conversations, a large share — 39 per cent — mentioned national security and almost all of it were in positive tones. The second most talked-about idea is around the prime minister’s leadership of the government — at 35 per cent. Economic strategy and accountability come up at third and fourth with 26 per cent and 22 per cent conversations on them, respectively. (These percentages, when added, exceed 100 as a conversation may have mentioned more than one topic.) Social development strategy (21 per cent ), administrative efficiency (21 per cent ) and communalism (7 per cent ) were the other top conversation themes. Economic strategy and communalism are the two topics where negative reactions overtook positive ones.
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Apart from the top topics of conversation, the survey looked at reactions to some specific issues. Kashmir, criminalisation of triple talaq and the progress of the National Register of Citizens drew overwhelming positives for the government. The Union budget presented by Sitharaman on July 5, new announcements and rollback of some of the tax surcharge proposals on August 23 and the target of a $5 trillion economy got high net negative vibes.
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Commenting on the findings of the survey, Ritu Ghuwalewala, founder of MavenMagnet, says: “Modi’s leadership continues to be a dominant force for NDA. However, we observed some negativity because of perceived false promises and publicity gimmicks.”
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The survey missed covering conversations around the transfer of Rs 1.76 lakh crore by the Reserve Bank of India to the government on August 28, as the announcement came two days after the survey closed. It had also missed the big-bang bank mergers that were announced on August 30 as well as the drop in GDP growth to 5 per cent in the April-June quarter. However, the issue of transfer of funds had been in the air since the Union budget proposals in July and the survey recorded a highly negative reaction to the idea up to August 26.
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Ghuwalewala also says: “‘Economic Strategy’ is the primary factor that drove negativity around Modi 2.0 in the first 100 days, led by the current state of economy that was seen as a failure of the first term, and disappointing Union Budget proposals.”
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Of all the conversations on economic strategy, 30 per cent discussed fiscal policy. The survey noted 22 per cent negative reaction compared with 8 per cent positive on this topic. Around 16 per cent of the conversations on the economy were about employment generation, and 14 per cent were negative.
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Conversational research picks up cues from online conversations among a large number of people — and therefore the set can be classified as those having access to the internet and an inclination to engage in such conversations. In comparison to a normal survey, conversational research avoids leading the participant through a choice of questions.One more tool used by MavenMagnet is called Brand Association Meter and this shows perception around the government are in positive territory on “trust” and “respect”, but is neutral on “hope”.
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ET Magazine also spoke to industrialist Harsh Goenka on his views on the government’s performance and he felt the first 100 days have been “action-packed”. He says: “The Modi government has shown decisiveness and boldness in dealing with long-pending social and political issues. The government has also been responsive to the needs of industry and investors. I am confident that there will be many more initiatives aimed at boosting exports, rural demand and reforms.” Methodology MavenMagnet, a multinational company, analysed 10,900 online conversations of 8,400 individuals between May 30 and August 26 this year around the Modi government. These conversations were on various platforms, including news websites, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. By analysing these conversations, MavenMagnet identified the most impactful initiatives of the Modi government in its first 89 days and how people perceived them online.