Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Buying in this kind of fall? Be selective: Deven Choksey

Tuesday, March 20, 2018, 5:13
This news item was posted in Business category and has 0 Comments so far.

Talking to ET Now, Deven Choksey, MD, KR Choksey Investment Managers, points out that some of these heavily stressed assets under NCLT are now finding a good value and this is good news for the banking stocks. Edited excerpts:ICICI Bank was the consensus trade for this year but forget about ICICI Bank outperforming retail banks, ICICI Bank is now even underperforming the Bank Nifty? On one side, the banking stocks should be cheering because of better prospects emerging as far as NCLT related proceedings are concerned. We are seeing very active interest coming up for most of the defaulting companies where the sale proceeds are on. Take the case of Binani Cements or Essar Steel. Some of these heavily stressed assets are now finding a good value and this is good news for the banking stocks. Down the line, in a few quarters, we should be seeing the reflection coming into the books of the banks when they start to get this money into the books and probably non-performing asset related pressure will come down. On one side, the banks are sitting on prospects which are far better than what we have seen up till now or the root cause of the problem with the banking stocks is now getting solved.So, that is one good thing which is happening in the system. On the other side, the banks in the near term are facing real big challenge in getting the credit offtake in time because of the fact that the overall environment in the system is becoming quite challenging for them to perform. I am not particularly sure about what one should talk about on ICICI or Axis Bank for that matter or even for any other PSBs but from the overall perspective, I believe the prospects for the banking stocks are improving and down the line. you should be seeing the reflections coming into the balance sheet. May be one will have to go selective in picking up some stocks in this kind of a fall.The HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.) issue closes today. It is a unique company because it is a defence PSU. Does it make sense to apply in the IPO? Yes, the company is now being opened up for a larger amount of game play in the defence as well. From that perspective, you have a larger visibility coming up for next three years and beyond with the order book that the company has. It is a good company to consider from the investment perspective. One point which always raises a doubt in the mind is somewhere after the listing, we will have to keep watching the management and the vision of the management to implement some of the game plans. The government is a big customer and are basically giving good orders. There is no doubt about the business for them, the issue is about the visibility that the management creates in the public sector companies and that is where one would like to keep an eye on. But all said and done, it is an issue which one would like to have in the investment portfolio may be post listing, if the market gives the opportunity at a lower price. The other stock which has done rather well this year is Thomas Cook. When we started the year, it was versus where it is now. The trigger there of course is that they have gone on record and said that they would be looking at spinning off their business interest in Quess Corp, a business which Thomas Cook had incubated on its balance sheet. Are you doing the right things by monetising the investment in Quess Corp? The promoter is looking to monetise his investment. This kind of target companies are invested in or incubated in order to monetise those assets and bring value to the investors at some point of time. There is nothing wrong with that particular perspective as long as you are convinced about the business model. For me, such transactions would probably generate the return for the investors as and when they happen. At the time when the company starts putting in money into new assets, they operate like private equity investors while incubating the assets. At this point of time, I am not too sure whether I will buy it but from investment perspective, it remains an interesting company.How should investors look at JP Associates? Rare Enterprises bought stake in the company last week and there was a 50% run-up in the stock. Again, it is the volatility and we have seen that historically as well in the past, the stock went close to Rs 3540 odd and from there, went back to single teen levels as well. Would investors need to be a little wary here or will with such a marquee name attached to it, it is perhaps a safer bet? You should have a deep pocket and you should have a long time available for investing in such kind of companies. The fundamentals have the potential to show a little better performance as far as this company and the business activity goes, particularly because when there are infrastructure-led growth happening, companies like JP Associates would probably find enough amount of opportunities for themselves. So, all depends on how you conduct your management to given points of time. Good investors are joining hands and obviously there should be a better prospect going forward. However, we do not have the coverage on the company. So refrain from putting any recommendation in those particular companies. What do you make of the entire NCLT issue? Just when it appeared that Binani Cement was all set to go to Dalmia Bharat, Piramal/Bain Consortium, UltraTech Cement has jumped in. Is UltraTech just trying to be a big bully here? UltraTech is trying to prevent Dalmia Bharat from getting Binani through this acquisition route and one thing comes out very clearly that though these assets are available at a stressed value currently, that is where the bidders are putting in their bids. Given the cycle in which most of the cement companies are and given the lime stock, many of the cement companies would be interested in buying the cement assets at a current market value. My take on UltraTech is actually endorsing that view point by putting in the value to the lenders, which is not at discount. It is full value that they are putting on the table to prevent Dalmia Bharat from getting into this particular space in a big way. It is quite possible that we are seeing a bigger picture coming in for the cement companies going forward. Given the kind of infrastructure led growth, given the kind of capacities that the companies have built and given the kind of cycle in which cement has already entered, I am not surprised that they are willing to pay full price to these kind of assets eventually.

You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Leave a Reply