By Pranab Dhal SamantaThis is a testing time for family, or dynasty-based, political parties. Rather than the 2019 elections being a grand battle of ideologies, it’s likely to be a verdict on the political currency of dynasty-run parties.This is not to suggest that ideology doesn’t matter. It does. But it is to be viewed as an issue in which parties have come to realise their constitutional confines, and that there are downsides to challenging these limits.Opportuning-in Opportunity to grow in a rapidly changing environment is increasingly the guiding principle of today’s politics. Which is why dynasties are coming under severe stress, because regardless of what you do, or how effective you may be, the family of the party patriarch will always be your glass ceiling.While this isn’t the first time that family-based parties are up against challenges, what’s new this time is that there’s an alternate avenue available for political talent. BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah is a renewed entity that has shed a lot of its baggage, quite eager to accept new talent for better gains.Membership of any old clique, like being a Vajpayee favourite or an Advani acolyte, no longer works. In fact, the last four years have seen a levelled playing field where patronage has been frowned upon, let alone rewarded.On the contrary, BJP has successfully absorbed fresh talent from other parties, including Congress. Himanta Biswa Sarma, who has played a key role in changing the party’s fortunes in the northeast, is a perfect example of a political leader leaving his preferred party, Congress, for BJP out of sheer frustration.
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This is exactly the problem, say, a Mehbooba Mufti is currently facing in Jammu and Kashmir. With her father and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) patriarch Mufti Mohammad Sayeed no longer at the helm, she is finding it increasingly difficult to deal with aspirants within her own party. There are PDP leaders questioning her ‘natural claim’ to Sayeed’s legacy.The fact is that second- or third-generation leaders in family-led parties may not necessarily command the same appeal as their patriarch. In Kashmir, both Mufti and National Conference’s Omar Abdullah have had their chances at the top. So, why should any other hardworking, performing leader from within their ranks not aspire to go beyond them or look for options? After all, political mobility is as important as political ideology.This is also the challenge Karnataka chief minister H D Kumaraswamy is up against. He accepted Congress support because it agreed to make him CM, even though many within his party have won against Congress candidates. But in his case, Janata Dal (Secular) patriarch and his father H D Deve Gowda is active and standing firmly by his side.It’s the same with Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, where patriarch M Karunanidhi has held it together, firmly backing his younger son M K Stalin in the state. But the jury is out on how the party will evolve after Karunanidhi.What’s clear, however, is that BJP will present itself as an option to many aspiring leaders. This was evident right after the death of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leader J Jayalalithaa. The divisions which that turbulence set off are likely to reshape Tamil Nadu politics in the days ahead.Sons Face Partial EclipseWe saw a similar problem within Samajwadi Party. Eventually, doubts and divisions over Akhilesh Yadav’s leadership led to a feud between him and his father Mulayam Singh Yadav, who had once proudly launched his son by handing over the baton of power under his watch in 2012. On a national scale, Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s struggle continues. The party has lost considerable talent across states to BJP, which not just accommodated, but even rewarded, new entrants.So, the question really is whether non-BJP dynasty-based parties have a model of growth at all for political aspirants. And let’s not forget that there’s not just talent, but new kinds of talent in politics today — from data scientists to voter list monitors and social media influencers — who seek opportunity and growth.The planned riposte to Modi-led BJP in 2019 is in the form of a united coalition led by a string of dynasty-based parties that haven’t done enough to celebrate or reward talent within their organisations. If this doesn’t change, these parties will always be vulnerable to BJP. And this may be the case despite improved electoral performances.BJP, on the other hand, has not allowed ideological differences to come in the way of recruiting talent, be it from Congress or any regional party. In time, it’s possible that BJP may develop a new leadership that resists promotion of outside talent at the cost of its own cadre. But, for now, that’s not a major problem.In 2019, the onus will be on other parties, including Congress, to show if they can take some hard decisions to reinvent and reposition themselves as dynasty-based parties. Either way, in a marketplace with options, political aspiration can no longer survive in a pre-determined family hierarchy just for the sake of ideology.